Chris O'Leary's Pitcher
I have been rating pitchers and their pitching mechanics since
2006, starting with Mark Prior and Anthony Reyes.
Over that time, I have developed and refined a Pitcher
Injury Risk Rating Algorithm (called PIRRA) to the point where I
no longer make my evaluations of current pitchers publicly available. I have consolidated all of my
current pitcher evaluations into
one piece entitled
Pitcher Picks and Pans.
However, in the interest of demonstrating PIRRA's power, below
are links to predictions I have made previously, some of which I
made on my
pitching mechanics analyses page and some of which I tweeted
The bottom line on Jaime Garcia is that I don't think his elbow problems are a
fluke. Like BJ Ryan, I think Jaime
Garcia is headed for Tommy John surgery followed a couple of
years later by shoulder problems. Jaime Garcia is not the answer
to my Cardinals' prayers.
Jaime Garcia Pitching Mechanics Analysis
July 21, 2008
If I ran the zoo, I would shut Tommy Hanson down for 2011 and
pray that he heals during the off-season. I would then convert
him to a closer. His timing isn't going to allow him to stay
healthy as a starter.
Tommy Hanson's Pitching Mechanics
Here's a picture of Matt Harvey
that shows the timing problem that I am talking about and
that concerns me. Given that his front foot is down, his pitching arm should be
Matt Harvey Pitching Mechanics Analysis
May 13, 2013
I love Tim Lincecum's stride and lower body, but he has an
Inverted L in his arm action that makes me nervous. I would
argue that Tim Lincecum's Inverted L explains why his velocity
has declined so dramatically.
Named in my
2014 podcast with Will Leitch.
Premature Pronation creates a
I know a lot of people are
extremely high on Anthony Reyes. However, I believe that I see a
flaw in his mechanics that may very well make him the Cardinals'
Mark Prior (and that's not a good thing). By that I mean a pitcher
who shows tons of promise but ends up with continual injury
Concerns About Anthony Reyes
July 25, 2006
I am glad that my St. Louis Cardinals (finally) traded
Anthony Reyes to the Cleveland Indians. I would be surprised if
the Indians get significant value out of this trade due to
Inverted W and resulting timing problem.
Anthony Reyes Pitching Mechanics Analysis
August 11, 2008
There is no question that Johan Santana has been very
successful to date. However, due to his borderline mechanics I
question whether Johan Santana will be able to continue that
level of success. I think Johan Santana could easily
give the Mets the same heartache that Pedro Martinez and El
Johan Santana's Pitching Mechanics
Major Inverted W. Hasn't broken down. Yet. It helps that he's a reliever.
Yes, he's just a reliever, and that will tend to reduce the
risk. However, I don't believe that Jordan Walden's mechanics will
allow him to last while being used in a regular set-up role.
Instead, I think the only way he will last is being used as a spot
stopper, not a regular set-up guy.
I predicted his Tommy John Surgery back in 2007. Now it looks
like the Inverted L in his arm action may be starting to cause
If you are interested in the topic of pitching injuries and the
basis for the predictions I make, my
interview with Will Leitch about pitching injuries is a good
place to start.
About The Author
Chris O'Leary never played baseball beyond grade school due
to a shoulder injury suffered due to poor pitching mechanics. As
a result, he is focused on ensuring that what happened to him
doesn't happen to anybody else.
The Epidemic is one way he hopes to achieve that goal.