|
Cliff Lee |
11/26/2008: Cliff Lee is
one of may favorite left-handed pitchers. Not only is he
effective, but
Cliff Lee's pitching mechanics look solid.
Between his pitches, his pitching mechanics, and his higher
arm slot, Cliff Lee strikes me as a kind of left-handed Mike
Mussina. That should make him a fairly
low-risk, high-reward pitcher for a number of years. |
Roy
Oswalt |
7/4/2007:
Roy Oswalt
pretty much single-handedly convinced me that the prejudice
against long-armers has no basis in fact. |
Mark
Buehrle |
7/17/2007:
While I haven't seen enough of Mark Buehrle to render a
verdict on his elbow, from what I have seen of his arm
action (IOW his lack of Inverted W), I think his shoulder
should hold up. |
David
Price |
7/4/2007: Deserved to go number 1 in the
2007 draft. From
the little I've seen of him, his mechanics are similar to
those of Greg Maddux. |
David
Kopp |
7/4/2007: Possibly my favorite RHP in
the 2007 draft. Very similar to Greg Maddux and Dan Haren.
Great arm-side run on his fastball, which means he knows how
to pronate his pitches and should protect his elbow. Great
arm action, which should protect his shoulder. Only question
is whether his command is what it needs to be. |
|
Daisuke
Matsuzaka |
7/4/2007: I like the
pitching mechanics
of Daisuke Matsuzaka. He's got some
Inverted W, but not
too much. His ball has tremendous movement; perhaps the best
in all of baseball. And no, he doesn't throw the gyroball. |
Felix
Hernandez |
7/4/2007: A little max-effort, but I
love his arm action. Had some forearm problems in 2007, but
were muscular and were probably related to a lack of
conditioning. |
Justin
Verlander |
1/15/2008:
Justin Verlander's pitching mechanics are solid and he
is very smooth. He also has great tail on his fastball.
3/3/2009: While I am still a fan of his arm action and timing, I
recently revisited his pitching mechanics of and discovered a
possible inefficiency in his lower body mechanics that may
explain his velocity problems and that make increase his risk of
shoulder problems. |
Joe Blanton |
3/30/2011: Joe Blanton has an extremely linear
stride. I have a theory that this makes a pitcher less
efficient, and more arm-y, so I will be watching to see how his
shoulder holds up. |
Dan
Haren |
7/4/2007:
Dan Haren is a near clone of Greg Maddux and
may be my favorite young pitcher as a result. Has an
above-average chance of being a 20-Year guy.
12/21/2008: I dropped Dan Haren a number of
notches because of a number of suggestions that he may have
a slight timing problem. |
Andrew
Miller |
7/15/2007: I haven't
seen much of him, so I don't know how his ball moves and how
his elbow will fare, but from what I have seen his arm
action is good, which should help to protect his shoulder. |
| Joba
Chamberlain |
8/20/2007: Like Phil
Hughes, Joba Chamberlain has a lot of Roger Clemens in him,
which I think is a good thing.
9/19/2008: I just found some video of Joba
Chamberlain and just did an
analysis of the pitching mechanics of Joba Chamberlain.
He makes me a little nervous due to what looks like a timing
problem. |
Cole
Hamels |
7/4/2007:
Cole Hamels has
a prior history of shoulder problems, probably related to
some Hyperabduction. 9/11/2007:
I have also seen a hint of a problem
with rushing in Cole Hamels' mechanics, which may help
to explain his recent elbow problems.
3/30/2011: Based on Cole Hamels' relative
durability, I think it's obvious that Hyperabduction isn't a
primary problem. He is one of the people who led me to focus
on the importance of timing. |
Freddy
Garcia |
7/4/2007: Freddy Garcia used to be one
of my favorites until his recent shoulder problems made me
take a second look at him. I realized I had overlooked
some signs of Hyperabduction.
I still like how early he breaks his hands and gets his PAS
forearm up and into the high-cocked position. |
|
Jonathan
Papelbon |
7/4/2007:
He has
had some shoulder problems, probably related to some
Hyperabduction. He may not
last if he leaves the bullpen. |
Barry
Zito |
8/8/2007: He breaks
his hands with his elbows which puts him in a classic
Inverted L position. While he hasn't had serious problems to date, he
may have experienced a recent drop in his velocity (which is
why he played around with his mechanics in 2007 Spring
Training) which may indicate an impending shoulder problem.
Of course, his arm action also resembles that of Chris
Carpenter, which means his elbow could also be at risk. The
bottom line is that I would be surprised if his big,
long-term deal turns out to be a success.
3/30/2011: To be honest, I can't believe Barry Zito
has lasted as long as he has. His Inverted L, and resulting
timing problem, make him a ticking time bomb and likely go a
long way to explaining his diminishing velocity and
effectiveness. The question is whether his arm will blow up
before the Giants simply give up on him. |
Ian
Kennedy |
9/11/2007: I've never
been a big fan of Ian Kennedy. He combines a significant Inverted
L with major reverse-rotation. The curse of USC (Tom
House?) strikes again! |
|
Jonathan
Broxton |
10/2/2008: As I say in
my
analysis of the pitching mechanics of Jonathan Broxton,
he has an Inverted V
or Inverted W in his
arm action, which is always a cause for concern because they
tend to
create a timing problem. He wouldn't last as a starter and
still faces an increased risk of elbow and shoulder problems
as a reliever. |
Jeff
Francis |
10/10/2007:
While I haven't seen enough of Jeff Francis to render a
verdict on his elbow, from what I have seen of his arm
action (IOW his lack of Inverted W), I think his shoulder
should hold up.
3/30/2011: Jeff
Francis has the same problem as Mark Mulder and Brandon
McCarthy. He pulls back with his GS elbow too soon. That
creates a timing problem causes his arm to drag. |
Tim
Lincecum |
7/4/2007: Same as Felix Hernandez. He's
a little max-effort, even more so than King Felix, but
Tim Lincecum's pitching mechanics and arm action look
mostly
good, which should help to protect his shoulder.
3/17/2008: I still like Tim Lincecum's mechanics,
but I have to acknowledge that he's got some
Inverted L in his
mechanics, which makes him riskier. However, it doesn't
affect his timing as much as it does someone like BJ Ryan.
6/15/2008: I recently came across some high
speed film of
Tim Lincecum's pitching mechanics which makes me
a bit nervous about him. As I mentioned above, I see some
Inverted L in his arm action, and I'm concerned that it may
be creating some timing problems for him. Combine timing
problems with a guy who's max-effort and you get a guy who's
relatively higher risk.
3/30/2011: I am
nervous about the health of Tim Lincecum's shoulder,
especially given that he seemed to lose a few MPH last
year. I am concerned that he could be the next big
name to go down. |
Johan
Santana |
7/4/2007: I like a lot
of things about Johan Santana's mechanics, but I have to
admit that I am somewhat concerned about his shoulder. He
has some
Inverted W in his
motion. It's hard to say whether he'll be able to succeed in
spite of it as John Smoltz and Pedro Martinez have. I also
haven't seen his ball move, so I'm not sure what the
prospects are for his elbow. He's certainly better than
Francisco Liriano, but I'm not sure how much better. |
Jake
Peavy |
7/4/2007: I'm not a fan of Jake Peavy's arm action, due
to his borderline Inverted
V, and it makes me concerned about his shoulder. But if
I'm correct then his tremendous arm-side run (aka tail) means his elbow
should hold up.
10/18/2008: I think that Jake Peavy's arm action is better characterized
as an Inverted V than an Inverted W. |
Jensen
Lewis |
9/10/2008: I'm not
sure what his timing looks like, but Jensen Lewis has a
significant Inverted V
in his arm action, which is always a cause for concern. He
wouldn't last as a starter. |
|
Adam
Wainwright |
7/4/2007:
Significant Hyperabduction
combined with some
Inverted W. I'm not hopeful about his long-term
prospects. He needs to be moved back into the bullpen if
he's going to last.
3/30/2011: Recently
blew out his elbow. I explain why in my new piece on
Adam Wainwright's
Inverted W. |
|
Stephen Strasburg |
3/30/2011:
As I explain in my piece on the
pitching mechanics of Stephen Strasburg, he has an
Inverted W and a timing problem. His shoulder is next. |
|
Kyle Blair |
11/3/2008:
Significant
Inverted W which hurts his timing. The only way he'll
last is in the bullpen. |
Aaron
Heilman |
7/4/2007:
A
virtual clone of Billy Wagner. Major
Inverted V.
Needs to stay in the bullpen
if he's going to last. |
AJ
Burnett |
9/10/2008: I'm not
a fan, due to his arm action. He's got some
Inverted W and
Inverted L and timing
problems as a result. I hope my Cardinals don't pick him up
in the off-season. |
Shaun
Marcum |
9/19/2008: way back in
August 2006 I expressed concern about
the pitching mechanics of Shaun Marcum. Well, I just
heard today that he has to undergo Tommy John surgery. I'm
not surprised given his
Inverted L to
Inverted W. |
Joel
Zumaya |
7/4/2007:
A
virtual clone of Billy Wagner (if not worse). Major
Inverted V. Needs to stay in the bullpen
if he's going to last. |
|
Jeremy
Bonderman |
9/11/2007:
Back
in December 2006, I said that giving a long-term to
Jeremy Bonderman was a bad idea. The problem is that he
has a significant Inverted
W and some
Hyperabduction.
Now Bonderman has been shut down for the rest of the year
with an elbow problem that I think is much more serious
than people believe.
9/10/2007: Bonderman has been shut down for the year
with a problem that I think is related to his Inverted W and
Hyperabduction. His arm action simply puts too much stress
on his arm and the structures around it. |
Francisco
Liriano |
8/17/2007:
Very pronounced Inverted
W. Is currently out with a torn UCL. I wouldn't be
surprised if his shoulder lets go next, probably a year or
two after he recovers from his elbow injury. I think he could be
the Twins' Mark Prior. This is such a waste because his
stats are absolutely incredible (e.g. superior to most HOF
pitchers). The only way he's going to last is as a
reliever ala Billy Wagner. |
Chris
Carpenter |
7/4/2007:
An
example of a guy who has been successful despite his mechanics.
I'm tempted to wonder how good he could have been but for
his poor mechanics. As
I said back in December 2006, I can't believe that Cardinals
signed
him to a long-term deal. He may come back strong in 2008 but
I'll bet he'll fall apart in 2009. That's been his pattern
so far. Oh, the humanity! |
Kerry
Wood |
7/4/2007:
An
example of a guy with a problem with habitual
rushing (ala Robb Nen) due to some
Inverted L. 9/11/2007: I don't see
any significant improvements in Kerry Wood's timing or
mechanics, the only thing that might protect him (for a
while) is improved conditioning and pitching out of the
bullpen. All bets are off if the Cubs try to turn him back
into a starter. |
Anthony
Reyes |
7/4/2007:
Anthony
Reyes is almost a clone of Mark Prior, and I am not
hopeful about his long-term prospects as a result (I think
he could be the Cardinals' Mark Prior). Tons of
Inverted W and
questionable timing as a result. I hope the Cardinals trade him before
he falls apart. |
Aaron
Crow |
6/5/2008:
I'm not a fan of
Aaron Crow. He's got a significant
Inverted L in his arm
action and he throws the slider. I would be surprised if he
lasts. |
Mark
Prior |
7/4/2007: Despite what Tom House says,
Mark Prior's pitching mechanics
may be the worst ever. Tons of Inverted W
combined with very poor timing. Stick a fork in him. He's
done.
6/4/2008: Mark Prior's season, and I
believe his career, is over. |
|
BJ Ryan |
1/15/2008: I thought it
was going to be hard to top Mark Prior, but
BJ
Ryan's pitching mechanics are even worse. Tons of
Inverted L resulting in
the worst timing I've ever seen. Stick a fork in him. He's
done. |