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Pitcher Picks And Pans

6/27/2008

In an effort to put my money where my mouth is, let me put down in writing my sense of who I think the best pitchers are. This list is based on mechanics and is sorted in descending order, with my favorites at the top.

Greg Maddux 7/4/2007: Greg Maddux is the epitome of a pitcher in my book. Tremendous mechanics combined with extraordinary command, movement, and deception. Also a great fielder. What more do you want?
Randy Johnson 7/4/2007: I have come to love the arm action of Randy Johnson. It's very similar to Maddux's. There is absolutely no sign of an Inverted W.
Nolan Ryan 7/4/2007: I don't think the durability of Nolan Ryan was a fluke. I really like Nolan Ryan's pitching mechanics.
Tom Seaver 7/4/2007: I wouldn't suggest that young pitchers copy the extreme drop and drive of Tom Seaver, but I generally like his mechanics.
Dan Haren 7/4/2007: Dan Haren is a near clone of Greg Maddux and may be my favorite young pitcher as a result. Has an above-average chance of being a 20-Year guy.
David Wells 7/4/2007: I don't think it's a coincidence that he has been a 20-year guy. Absolutely no sign of the Inverted W.
Roger Clemens 7/4/2007: Roger Clemens now has classic pitching mechanics and IMO has been extremely durable as a result. The only reason that he's below Dan Haren on this list is that Roger Clemens' mechanics weren't always this good. He had some flaws while he was in Boston and that forced him to change things.
Tom Glavine 7/4/2007: My favorite current LHP. The only reason that he's not (a lot) higher is that his PAS elbow gets a little high for my taste. However it doesn't seem to have caused him any problems.
Jeff Suppan 7/4/2007: Solid, simple mechanics and a great pitcher in the clutch. I can't believe the Cardinals let him go.
Mark Buehrle 7/17/2007: While I haven't seen enough of Mark Buehrle to render a verdict on his elbow, from what I have seen of his arm action (IOW his lack of Inverted W), I think his shoulder should hold up.
Jeff Francis 10/10/2007: While I haven't seen enough of Jeff Francis to render a verdict on his elbow, from what I have seen of his arm action (IOW his lack of Inverted W), I think his shoulder should hold up.
Roy Oswalt 7/4/2007: Roy Oswalt pretty much single-handedly convinced me that the prejudice against long-armers has no basis in fact.
Justin Verlander 1/15/2008: Justin Verlander's pitching mechanics are solid and he is very smooth. He also has great tail on his fastball.
Phil Hughes 8/14/2007: While Phil Hughes' arm action isn't quite as good as Dan Haren's, it's better than Jake Peavy's and Phil Hughes' ball tails nearly as much as Peavy's does. For that reason, I think Phil Hughes has a reasonable chance of having a long, successful career.
Daisuke Matsuzaka 7/4/2007: I like the pitching mechanics of Daisuke Matsuzaka. He's got some Inverted W, but not too much. His ball has tremendous movement; perhaps the best in all of baseball. And no, he doesn't throw the gyroball.
David Kopp 7/4/2007: Possibly my favorite RHP in the 2007 draft. Very similar to Greg Maddux and Dan Haren. Great arm-side run on his fastball, which means he knows how to pronate his pitches and should protect his elbow. Great arm action, which should protect his shoulder. Only question is whether his command is what it needs to be.
David Price 7/4/2007: Deserved to go number 1 in the 2007 draft. From the little I've seen of him, his mechanics are similar to those of Greg Maddux.
Kip Wells 7/4/2007: I mostly like his mechanics. His problems are probably between his ears. Pity.
Andrew Miller 7/15/2007: I haven't seen much of him, so I don't know how his ball moves and how his elbow will fare, but from what I have seen his arm action is good, which should help to protect his shoulder.
Felix Hernandez 7/4/2007: A little max-effort, but I love his arm action. Had some forearm problems in 2007, but were muscular and were probably related to a lack of conditioning.
Joba Chamberlain 8/20/2007: Like Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain has a lot of Roger Clemens in him, which I think is a good thing.
Sandy Koufax 7/4/2007: I have spent a lot of time looking at the pitching mechanics of Sandy Koufax, and I generally like what I see. I think his elbow problems were mostly due to overuse, abuse, and some congenital circulatory problems.
Tim Lincecum 7/4/2007: Same as Felix Hernandez. He's a little max-effort, even more so than King Felix, but Tim Lincecum's pitching mechanics and arm action look mostly good, which should help to protect his shoulder.
3/17/2008: I still like Tim Lincecum's mechanics, but I have to acknowledge that he's got some Inverted L in his mechanics, which makes him riskier. However, it doesn't affect his timing as much as it does someone like BJ Ryan.
6/15/2008: I recently came across some high speed film of Tim Lincecum's pitching mechanics which makes me a bit nervous about him. As I mentioned above, I see some Inverted L in his arm action, and I'm concerned that it may be creating some timing problems for him. Combine timing problems with a guy who's max-effort and you get a guy who's relatively higher risk.
John Smoltz 7/4/2007: His arm action has got some Inverted W in it, and I don't think it's a coincidence that he has had both elbow and shoulder problems. However, it's hard to argue with his success.
6/27/2008: I just completed an analysis of John Smoltz's pitching mechanics that explains the root cause of his elbow and shoulder problems.
Pedro Martinez 7/4/2007: As with John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez's arm action has got some Inverted W in it, and I don't think it's a coincidence that he has had shoulder problems. However, it's hard to argue with his success.
Johan Santana 7/4/2007: I like a lot of things about Johan Santana's mechanics, but I have to admit that I am somewhat concerned about his shoulder. He has some Inverted W in his motion. It's hard to say whether he'll be able to succeed in spite of it as John Smoltz and Pedro Martinez have. I also haven't seen his ball move, so I'm not sure what the prospects are for his elbow. He's certainly better than Francisco Liriano, but I'm not sure how much better.
Mike Maroth 7/4/2007: I know the Cardinals are desperate for pitching, but I don't know if he's the answer. I see signs of Hyperabduction, which makes me wonder if his shoulder's going to hold up.
Barry Zito 8/8/2007: His breaks his hands with his elbows, which causes his PAS elbow to get quite high. While he hasn't had serious problems to date, he may have experienced a recent drop in his velocity (which is why he played around with his mechanics in 2007 Spring Training) which may indicate an impending shoulder problem. Of course, his arm action also resembles that of Chris Carpenter, which means his elbow could also be at risk. The bottom line is that I would be surprised if his big, long-term deal turns out to be a success.
Jake Peavy 7/4/2007: I'm not a fan of Jake Peavy's arm action, due to a significant Inverted W, and it makes me concerned about his shoulder. But if I'm correct then his tremendous arm-side run (aka tail) means his elbow should hold up.
Ian Kennedy 9/11/2007: I've never been a big fan of Ian Kennedy. He combines a significant Inverted L with major reverse-rotation. The curse of USC (Tom House?) strikes again!
Freddy Garcia 7/4/2007: Freddy Garcia used to be one of my favorites until his recent shoulder problems made me take a second look at him. I realized I had overlooked some signs of Hyperabduction. I still like how early he breaks his hands and gets his PAS forearm up and into the high-cocked position.
Jonathan Papelbon 7/4/2007: He has had some shoulder problems, probably related to some Hyperabduction. He may not last if he leaves the bullpen.
Cole Hamels 7/4/2007: Cole Hamels has a prior history of shoulder problems, probably related to some Hyperabduction. 9/11/2007: I have also seen a hint of a problem with rushing in Cole Hamels' mechanics, which may help to explain his recent elbow problems.
Adam Wainwright 7/4/2007: Significant Hyperabduction combined with some Inverted W. I'm not hopeful about his long-term prospects. He needs to be moved back into the bullpen if he's going to last.
Aaron Heilman 7/4/2007: A virtual clone of Billy Wagner. Major Hyperabduction. Needs to stay in the bullpen if he's going to last.
Joel Zumaya 7/4/2007: A virtual clone of Billy Wagner. Major Hyperabduction. Needs to stay in the bullpen if he's going to last.
Billy Wagner 7/4/2007: Tons of Hyperabduction. Has had multiple shoulder problems as a result. What saved his career was pitching out of the bullpen.
Jeremy Bonderman 9/11/2007: Back in December 2006, I said that giving a long-term to Jeremy Bonderman was a bad idea. The problem is that he combines a significant Inverted W with some Hyperabduction. Now Bonderman has been shut down for the rest of the year with an elbow problem that I think is much more serious than people believe.
Francisco Liriano 8/17/2007: Very pronounced Inverted W. Is currently out with a torn UCL. I wouldn't be surprised if his shoulder lets go next. Probably a year or two after he recovers from his elbow injury. I think he could be the Twins' Mark Prior. This is such a waste because his stats are absolutely incredible (e.g. superior to most HOF pitchers). The only way he's going to last is as a reliever ala Billy Wagner.
Chris Carpenter 7/4/2007: An example of a guy who has been successful despite his mechanics. I'm tempted to wonder how good he could have been but for his poor mechanics. As I said back in December 2006, I can't believe that Cardinals signed him to a long-term deal. He may come back strong in 2008 but I'll bet he'll fall apart in 2009. That's been his pattern so far. Oh, the humanity!
Kerry Wood 7/4/2007: An example of a guy with a problem with habitual rushing (ala Robb Nen) due to some Inverted L. 9/11/2007: I don't see any significant improvements in Kerry Wood's timing or mechanics, the only thing that might protect him (for a while) is improved conditioning and pitching out of the bullpen. All bets are off if the Cubs try to turn him back into a starter.
Anthony Reyes 7/4/2007: Anthony Reyes is almost a clone of Mark Prior, and I am not hopeful about his long-term prospects as a result (I think he could be the Cardinals' Mark Prior). Tons of Inverted W and questionable timing. I hope the Cardinals trade him before he falls apart.
Aaron Crow 6/5/2008: I'm not a fan of Aaron Crow. He's got a significant Inverted L in his arm action and he throws the slider. I would be surprised if he lasts.
Mark Prior 7/4/2007: Despite what Tom House says, Mark Prior's pitching mechanics may be the worst ever. Tons of Inverted W combined with very poor timing. Stick a fork in him. He's done.
6/4/2008: Mark Prior's season, and I believe his career, is over.
BJ Ryan 1/15/2008: I thought it was going to be hard to top Mark Prior, but BJ Ryan's pitching mechanics are even worse. Tons of Inverted L result in the worst timing I've ever seen. Stick a fork in him. He's done.
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