Pitching Mechanics Analysis
Stephen Strasburg

Given all the hype surrounding him of late, I thought I'd update this piece on the pitching mechanics of Stephen Strasburg using some photographs I have collected over the past few days.

The (Updated) Bottom Line

The bottom line on Stephen Strasburg is that I don't think he'll be another Mark Prior. While I'm working to get some video to confirm this -- because still photos can only tell you so much -- Stephen Strasburg's mechanics and timing don't seem to be as bad as those of Mark Prior.
     However, Strasburg also isn't completely clean.
     I see things that concern me in his arm action and timing and the pitcher they again bring to mind is John Smoltz, another pitcher who had a borderline Inverted W and some arm problems as a result. I could very easily see Stephen Strasburg having a comparable career; years of total dominance accompanied by lost years due to shoulder and elbow problems.

Let's Go to the Pics

I have spent the past week collecting as many recent pictures of Stephen Strasburg as I can, and here are some of the better and more telling ones.

Stephen Strasburg

Lots of people will say that the picture above shows Stephen Strasburg's clear Inverted W. I wouldn't say that is anything other than a borderline Inverted W. Because he is leaning forward toward third base, his elbows look higher than they actually are.

Stephen Strasburg

The picture above makes me nervous for three reasons. First, I see a suggestion of a timing problem. It looks like Stephen Strasburg may pull back with his glove elbow a bit early, which can create a timing problem and which is the likely cause of Mark Mulder and Jeff Francis' shoulder problems. Second, Stephen Strasburg's elbows are well behind his shoulders. Third, his elbows are quite high relative his shoulders.

Greg Maddux

Nolan Ryan

If you look at how greats like Greg Maddux and Nolan Ryan Scapular Load, their elbows never get that high (because the higher the elbows get, the greater the strain on the shoulder).

Stephen Strasburg

Stephen Strasburg

The two pictures above show a similar pattern from slightly different angles. Notice how Stephen Strasburg is pulling back with his Glove Side (GS) elbow while his Pitching Arm Side (PAS) forearm is still only horizontal.

Stephen Strasburg

The photo above is from a slightly later moment in time. Notice how Stephen Strasburg has continued to pull back with his glove side elbow and how his PAS forearm is still not yet vertical. I'd need video to confirm this, but this is often characteristic of a timing problem.

Stephen Strasburg

Similarly, the photo above gives some suggestion of a timing problem and a resulting increased load on the front of the PAS shoulder. Look at how much Stephen Strasburg's scaps are pinched together. At a minimum, you don't see this degree a scap pinching in Nolan Ryan.

Video Analysis

The video clip below, which I obtained from Driveline Mechanics, is of the pitching mechanics of Stephen Strasburg. The problem is that Stephen Strasburg's pitching mechanics appear to have been influenced by, and are remarkably similar to, those of Mark Prior. The thing to pay attention to in this clip is the borderline Inverted W that is clearly visible in Frame 23 and Frame 24.

Stephen Strasburg

Stephen Strasburg's Inverted W

While the Inverted W isn't automatically bad, in Stephen Strasburg's case it does appear to create a significant timing problem.
     Notice that in Frame 26, when Stephen Strasburg's Glove Side (GS) foot plants and his shoulders start to rotate, his Pitching Arm Side (PAS) forearm is just above the horizontal rather than being vertical (or nearly so) as I prefer. In Frame 27, when Stephen Strasburg's shoulder's have clearly rotate a significant amount, his PAS is still not yet vertical.
     All of this causes Stephen Strasburg's PAS upper arm to externally rotate especially hard and much (see Frame 29) which significantly increases the load on the elbow and the shoulder. What's more it looks like this external rotation, as with Mark Prior, occurs with his PAS upper arm elevated in a position of hyperabduction.
     If you combine this with Stephen Strasburg's plus to plus plus velocity and the fact that he seems to be a fastball/slider guy, rather than a fastball/change-up guy, you've got someone who is putting tremendous, and likely excessive, stress on his elbow and his shoulder.

The Bottom Line on Stephen Strasburg

The bottom line on Stephen Strasburg is that, while he may be a consensus number one like David Price, mechanically speaking Stephen Strasburg is no David Price.
     Like Mark Prior, Stephen Strasburg has some Inverted W in his arm action and a timing problem as a result (aka habitual rushing). This will significantly increase the load on his elbow and his shoulder and make him a very high risk draft choice. I could even see him pulling a Cole St. Clair and blowing up mid-season.
     However, because his mechanics in some of the frames I have seen aren't quite as bad as Mark Prior's, and at times he sometimes makes the Horizontal W rather than the Inverted W...

Stephen Strasburg

...there is a chance that Stephen Strasburg could have a career more like a John Smoltz. In that case, he would be effective for periods of time but would also struggle with elbow and shoulder problems. It's a bit hard to say for sure, since Stephen Strasburg seems to show significant variability in his arm action from year to year.