ChrisOLeary.com > Pitching > The List: Pitcher Injury Predictions

The List: Chris O'Leary's
Pitcher Injury Predictions

Can I predict injuries to pitchers? Contrary to what Jeff Passan says, my understanding of Matt Harvey's pitching mechanics let me see his injuries coming again and again and again...

My understanding of Timing also helps me understand the riskiness of teams' rotations.

I discuss the theory behind my predictions in The Epidemic.

If you want to keep up on my latest predictions, I tweet @thepainguy

Hits

I (publicly) predicted the injuries of...

Misses

I view my misses -- predictions that I got wrong -- as a learning opportunity; as an opportunity to update and improve my algorithm.

When Things Change...

My assessments of pitchers' mechanics are based on their mechanics at the time of the analysis. In some cases, pitchers' mechanics change, causing pitchers I initially like to break. Some examples of this are...

Earlier Versions of The List

Earlier versions can be found here...

Alvarez, Henderson

Appel, Mark

Arroyo, Bronson

I have updated my piece on Hyperabduction to discuss Bronson Arroyo's problems.

Barrett, Aaron

Bassitt, Chris

Buehler, Walker

Bundy, Dylan

Cabrera, Mauricio

Cain, Matt

Named in my 2014 podcast with Will Leitch.

Matt Cain

Matt Cain

Cashner, Andrew

Cingrani, Tony

Cole, Gerrit

Coleman, Louis

Cosart, Jarred

Although he isn't definitively dealing with a pitching-related injury, I believe Jarred Cosart's problems may be due to Thoracic Outlet Syndrome or something similar and are caused by his high elbows and resulting timing problem.

Crow, Aaron

Darvish, Yu

Davis, Wade

deGrom, Jacob

Jacob deGrom can't stay healthy because his pitching mechanics have changed. Jacob deGrom can't stay healthy because, like Matt Harvey, his pitching mechanics always were flawed and are now taking their toll.

The root cause of Jacob deGrom's problems is Premature Pronation or, more simply, the Tommy John Twist. It's typically caused by cues like Point the Ball at Second Base.

deSclafani, Anthony

Eovaldi, Nathan

Farmer, Buck

Fernandez, Jose

I LOVED how Jose Fernandez played the game. He was joy epitomized.

RIP.

However, the fact remains that Jose Fernandez's pitching mechanics were highly flawed. As a result, he needed Tommy John surgery after throwing just 225 MLB innings. He then had shoulder problems after coming back from TJS.

Because of his obviously flawed pitching mechanics, I was able to see both Jose Fernandez's elbow and shoulder injuries coming months in advance.

For more information about Jose Fernandez, see my analysis of Jose Fernandez's pitching mechanics at.

Finnegan, Brandon

Floyd, Gavin

Glasnow, Tyler

Gonzales, Marco

Gray, Sonny

I discuss his injury in my analysis of Sonny Gray's pitching mechanics. Which I put together a week before his injury.

Greene, Shane

Hahn, Jesse

Harvey, Hunter

Harvey, Matt

Contrary to what the coward Jeff Passan says, I predicted both Matt Harvey's elbow and shoulder problems months in advance.

My analysis of Matt Harvey's pitching mechanics explains how I saw his elbow injury coming, but here are some tweets from this year that explain why I was concerned about his shoulder in general and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in particular due to a problem I call Hyperabduction.

Heaney, Andrew

Holland, Derek

Holland, Greg

Hughes, Phil

Johnson, Josh

Named in my 2014 podcast with Will Leitch.

Kaprielian, James

Kela, Keone

Kelly, Joe

Keuchel, Dallas

Kirby, Nathan

Lincecum, Tim

I love Tim Lincecum's stride and lower body, but he has an Inverted L in his arm action that makes me nervous. I would argue that Tim Lincecum's Inverted L explains why his velocity has declined so dramatically.
Tim Lincecum Pitching Mechanics Analysis
2007.12.12
Lincecum's still got a major timing problem that puts his shoulder and elbow at risk, although his velocity drop suggests that his shoulder may go first.
Baseball-Fever Thread
2011.4.15

Lugo, Seth

Lynn, Lance

Manaea, Sean

Masterson, Justin

Matuella, Michael

Matz, Steven

I just put together a new piece that discusses Flying Open (with the Glove) which I believe is Steven Matz's core problem.

May, Trevor

McCullers, Lance

McHugh, Collin

Medlen, Kris

Morton, Charlie

Nikorak, Mike

Nola, Aaron

Nova, Ivan

Named in my 2014 podcast with Will Leitch.

Ottavino, Adam

Parker, Jarrod

Jarrod Parker served as the basis for my piece on Flat Arm Syndrome.

Parnell, Bobby

Perez, Williams

Pomeranz, Drew

Price, David

Prior, Mark

I have put together an analysis of Mark Prior's pitching mechanics.

Qualls, Chad

Reyes, Alex

My analysis of Alex Reyes' pitching mechanics goes into detail about what concerned me, why, and when.

Reyes, Anthony

I have put together an analysis of Anthony Reyes' pitching mechanics.

Richards, Garrett

Rodon, Carlos

Ross, Joe

Ross, Tyson

Ryan, BJ

My January 2008 analysis of BJ Ryan's pitching mechanics contained an extremely accurate prediction.

Ryu, Hyun Jin

Salazar, Danny

Severino, Luis

Smith, Carson

Storen, Drew

Strasburg, Stephen

I recently put together a summary of my views of Stephen Strasburg's pitching mechanics.

Syndergaard, Noah

Noah Syndergaard is one of the pitchers  featured in my piece on vulnerable pitchers at the 2015 All-Star Break.

Taillon, Jameson

Tanaka, Masahiro

Named in my 2014 podcast with Will Leitch.

Tropeano, Nick

Vargas, Jason

In June, people were saying Jason Vargas' forearm problems were no big deal; totally unrelated to any problem with his elbow. I disagreed. I thought his forearm problems were a sign of an impending UCL failure.

Velasquez, Vincent

Wacha, Michael

My analysis of Michael Wacha's pitching mechanics explains why I knew he was going to get hurt again and why my opinion of him has changed.

Below are some of my more relevant recent tweets about Michael Wacha, starting with a reiteration of my concerns 27 minutes before it was announced he was injured.

Walden, Jordan

Yes, he's a reliever, and that will tend to reduce the risk. However, I don't believe that Jordan Walden's mechanics will allow him to last while being used in a regular set-up role. Instead, I think the only way he will last is being used as a stopper, not a regular set-up guy.

2015.04.23

Wang, Chien-Ming

Wheeler, Zack

Whitley, Chase

Wilson, CJ

Winkler, Daniel

I have put together a new piece called The Truth About the Inverted W as a result of the repeated failure of Dan Winkler's elbow.

Wood, Alex

Zimmermann, Jordan

I predicted Jordan Zimmermann's Tommy John Surgery back in 2007. Now it looks like the Inverted L in his arm action may be starting to cause shoulder problems.
2015.04.14.

Misses

On occasion, I miss on a pitcher, usually because I miss something. I then update my algorithm and rarely make that mistake again.

Lee, Cliff

In the case of Cliff Lee, what I missed was a moderate case of Premature Pronation. This was due in part to trying to please my critics and not relying on still pictures. Now, I use all tools available, which includes video and still pics.

When Things Change

Some of my misses are due to the fact that a pitcher's mechanics change -- or are changed -- after being drafted and/or in the major leagues. As a Cardinals fan, I find it incredibly troubling that all these pitchers are Cardinals.

Martinez, Carlos

Rosenthal, Trevor

See my overview of Trevor Rosenthal's pitching mechanics.

Wacha, Michael

I have put together an aanalysis of Michael Wacha's pitching mechanics that explains why he got hurt despite my initial liking of him.

About The Author

Chris O'Leary never played baseball beyond grade school due to a shoulder injury suffered due to poor pitching mechanics. As a result, he is focused on ensuring that what happened to him doesn't happen to anybody else. The Epidemic is one way he hopes to achieve that goal.

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